If you don’t close to Turkish history and politics, it could be hard to understand that; why Turkey try to take strict steps on Syria and Iraq. Lets check the situation.
After Arab Spring, a lot of countries’ governments which are effected by this movement, started to became weak. As I remember, about 17 countries effected by Arab Spring.
Our university (EMU in TRNC), has arround 6.000 foreign students. I have friends who comes from these region. For example, in Libya, situation is really hard. When Kaddafi killed by opposition, Libya divided between different political groups. There isn’t stability and “democracy”. Only a few countries such as Tunusia, Egypt etc succseeded.
These unstability and weak governemnts gave a chance to radical movement. They get together and SOMEHOW they found weapons, cars, even missiles. Terrorists in Middle East, have Russian, American, German guns, Japan cars etc. So there is different situation.
I think this is kind of “proxy war” for states. War is too expensive. World’s powerful country which is USA, made an operation to Iraq. However, we knew what happened to USA. Most powerful country in the world, took really big damages both in economically and politically also advanced weapons didn’t work very well because soldiers more important than weapons in that kind of land war…
When America involved to Iraq, state became really weak. Smuggling of historical artifacts rised and Iraq history and artifacts just destroyed (or carried to another countries). Also Iraq divided to 3 by ethnically. That means, transition of unitary state to federal state. Same event is triggered in Syria!
First step of “independence” is became autonomous canton (federal unit). Now, Iraq looks like that;
Yellow part is Kurds region. However there are a lot of Türks (called by Turkoman or Türkmen). Pinks are Arab (and Sunni), also there is Shia part which is yellow. Now lets check the “live map” of Iraq.
This is not ethnic, this is political map. Black is the ISIS, red is the central government and yellow part is Barzani’s part which is after referandum, “Kurdistan local government”(canton) declared unilaterally its independence.
What About Syria?
There are Türkmens and Kurds in Syria too. Lets check livemap of Syria.
Kurds in yellow parts, red is central governmen which is Assad, green is Free Syrian Army which is Sunni opposition.
This is ISIS map (28.09.2017)
As you see, ISIS almost defated. However, “yellow” which is Kurdish part of Syria and Iraq also tell us something…
Before that, I want to give Turkish local election of 2014’s map. But just HDP’s vote distribution (or weight):
1 November 2015 election. South East part of Turkey, which is neighbor with Iran, Iraq and Syria… This is HDP but in public this is Kurdish political party.
Lets combine Kurds in Republic of Turkey, Syria and Iraq;
Kurds in Iraq became indepence, after that I’m pretty sure Syrian Kurds also wanted to be independence. And then? This is Turkey’s and Turkish people’s drawback.
In independence war, we fought together. We created modern Turkey together. However some politicans did wrong things and try to suppress some opinion on Kurdish origin Turks. After 1980, PKK which is terrorist organization want to splitting and shredding to Turkey. Kurdish origin terrorist organizations but a lot of countries supported to PKK and still they are supporting.
Our security forces capturing weapons made in USA, Russia, Israel and a lot of west European countries. Also PYD is same organization like PKK but they are operating in Syria. When they cross border, they are work for PKK however, when they go to Syria, they are member of PYD which is supported by USA, Russia, European countries etc.
When ISIS war over and Syria become normal; weapons which are given by USA, Russia, Israel, Germany etc will be use against Turkey. This is the problematic part.
Western supported Kurdish units try to open Kurdish corridor and Turkey made an operation to Syria for avoid that. Before that, shown yellow part was under the control of ISIS. When Turkish soldiers made operation, it shifted to Free Syrian Army.
Turkish Politics is Changing
Ruling government (Erdoğan’s) is really weak on diplomacy and global politics. They are acting like bully in high school. Yes Turkey have capacity to beat both Iraq and Syrian forces however it is no more 20th cc. This is information age, this is diplomacy age…
Turkish people and I also believe that, USA and NATO allies are not together with Turkey. They are also support the Kurds and when time is came, they will support the Kurds in Turkey for independence.
I’m not trust the USA.
Russia is another game changer. It is no more 1990s Russia. Specially after 2008, Russia became strong global actor. Neocon (neo-conservative) movements and also extreme rightest movements are rising in the world. Brexit, Trump and movements in European Union are good example for that.
It is rising because, in 2008 economical crisis; a lot of people try to go to Europe. Also Arab Spring and ISIS (situation of Syria) created more refugees. That means, different cultures and rise of nationalism. This is another topic.
Before these situations, I’m believe that; Russian and Turkish people are kind of similar in politics. Of course Russia has better diplomacy and knowledge. Because our conservative government destroy all kind of practices and bond with past. Still, presidents like Obama, Justin Trudeau etc won’t work in both countries. Russians and Turks like tough leader. Also both countries never taste real democracy. Russia made Marxist revolution and Turkey also made revolution but between 1920-1946 there was a single party. 1960 coup, 1971 memorandum, 1980 coup, 2002 AKP government and after 2007 again we lost democratic institutions etc….
All these and more reasons, push Turkey and Russia’s allience. West try to push Russia for economical and politically and also Turkey’s situation is the same… In the future, Russia and Turkey will be closer but I think, Russians will never forget plane crisis.
As a result, Turkish people lost their trust to European Union (check Turkey’s EU membership path), also United States… In my opinion, according to Europeans plan, after Kurdish part leave the Turkey (if it is happens) Turkey will be in European Union (if it stays) to control Turkey… Population and religion of Turkey is scare to Europeans.
In personally, I don’t want to be in EU but we should follow European Union’s laws and regulations. Because most of them really good for democracy and human rights. I believe democracy, rule of law, freedom of speech and other “democratic institution” concepts. However, being under the control is not work in Turkey and Turkish political culture.
On the other side, Kurds in Turkey are not similar in Iraq and Syria. I will write in the another post why syria and Iraq have problems? Because Sykes Picot guys (French and British), draw a border with ruler without looking condition of religion, ethnic, religion sect etc… It is another topic…
But in Iran and Turkey, Kurds are different. Specially Iran Kurds have knowledge. About “racism”… In France, eveyone is French but when you say in Turkey; citizens are Turks, some of idiot leftist blame to you as a racist.
In 66.th article of Turkish Constitution there is this sentence,
Everyone bound to the Turkish State through the bond of citizenship is a Turk
It is really good sentence. Regarding your background; race, religion, though, political choise, etc; if you are citizen of Turkish Republic, you are Turk. This is not “race” of Turk, this is name of citizenship. Thats all..
Some of intellectuals (who has micro-racist and they hate Turkish history, Turkish race and Turkey) just try to impose this is a racist article..
As a Result
Turkey will defend itself, and we will try to create a future together with all kind of origin in the Turkey (Kürt, Laz, Çerkez, Alevi, Shia, Sunni etc). We are not Syria, we are not Iraq. Our history is really strong. Our discipline of state and army is really old (land forces: BC 209). You can check Turkish history.
Yes we are dealing some terror issues and there are supports by other countries. Yes we are dealing radical Islamists in country and we are dealing Atatürk’s haters… However it will change in short period. Government will change and we will create modern, secular and DEMOCRATIC (but real mean) Turkey!
Countries who created from colony and have less than 300-400 years couldn’t understand how Turkey is standing? Because we are facing really difficult problems… But we will survive…
We will defeat radicals, separatists and plans of some countries.
2030, I will be president of Turkey. My way will be complete democratic country… Model country for region states. But first, we have to deal with internal problems…